Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Excess Deaths Worldwide, Researchers Say

Extreme heat linked to this year's "super El Niño" climate pattern could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, as reported by France 24.

The number of extremely hot days globally is expected to rise by 44 percent during the period studied, the researchers found. Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan are among the countries projected to be most affected by the resulting heat-related mortality.

Researchers involved in the study cautioned that the health impact of the current El Niño event could extend beyond the six-month window examined, suggesting the toll from extreme heat could continue to accumulate afterward. El Niño is a recurring climate pattern involving the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can influence weather and temperature patterns across much of the globe.

Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, discussed the phenomenon and its implications in comments to France 24, elaborating on the climate mechanism behind the projected toll.

The Climate Impact Lab's projections add to a growing body of research examining the human health toll of extreme heat amplified by El Niño conditions and broader climate change. The report did not specify the methodology used to calculate the excess-death estimate or how it compares with mortality figures from previous El Niño events.