Researchers Warn This Year's Super El Niño Could Cause Up to 451,000 Excess Deaths Worldwide

Climate scientists are warning that extreme heat linked to this year's "super El Niño" could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.

The researchers project that the number of extremely hot days will rise by 44 percent as a result of the current El Niño event, a natural climate pattern that periodically warms surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and can intensify heat extremes in many parts of the world.

Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are among the countries expected to be hit hardest by the resulting heat, according to the analysis, though researchers note the effects of a strong El Niño can extend across a wide range of regions with varying degrees of severity.

The Climate Impact Lab's researchers cautioned that the six-month window they studied, running through February 2027, may understate the true toll, warning that the broader public health and economic impacts of the heat event could extend well beyond that period.

The findings add to a growing body of research linking El Niño events to measurable increases in heat-related mortality, particularly in lower-income countries with less capacity to protect vulnerable populations from extreme temperatures.