UK Pollster Faced Scrutiny Over Undisclosed Reform-Commissioned Polls, Guardian Column Says

A polling firm failed to disclose that three polls it published ahead of the local elections in May were commissioned by Reform UK, according to a Channel 4 investigation cited in a Guardian opinion column by Jonathan Liew. The revelation has prompted renewed discussion within the UK polling industry about transparency and accuracy standards, the column said.

Liew wrote that such episodes of public reckoning have become a recurring pattern following major elections, with pollsters gathering to review their methods after failing to accurately predict outcomes.

The column pointed to a series of high-profile polling errors in recent UK political history, including the 2015 and 2017 general elections, the 2016 European Union membership referendum, and the 2021 London mayoral election, as examples of forecasts that diverged significantly from actual results.

Liew also cited Survation’s final MRP poll ahead of the 2024 general election, which he said predicted a 318-seat majority for the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, a figure he said overstated the actual result by 144 parliamentary seats.

The column argued that despite repeated inaccuracies, the polling industry has continued to play an outsized role in shaping political coverage and public discourse. It called for greater focus on substantive political issues rather than what it described as excessive attention paid to poll data.

Jonathan Liew is a columnist for The Guardian. The publication has been approached, according to the article, though further details on the polling firm named in the Channel 4 investigation were not specified in the column.