Price of Russian Gas Exports to China Projected to Rise in 2026 and 2027

The price of Russian natural gas supplied to China is projected to rise by approximately 3% in 2026, according to a baseline forecast cited by TASS. The same forecast anticipates a more modest increase of 1.4% in 2027.

Under this baseline scenario, the price of gas delivered to China is expected to reach $247.9 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026. The projected increase reflects ongoing adjustments in pricing formulas tied to the broader energy trade relationship between Russia and China, which has expanded significantly as Moscow has redirected energy exports following the loss of major European markets.

Gas exports to China have become an increasingly important component of Russia's energy strategy, with pipeline infrastructure underpinning long-term supply agreements between the two countries. Pricing for these contracts is typically influenced by a mix of global energy market benchmarks, contractual terms, and bilateral negotiations.

The forecast does not specify the full methodology behind the projected price changes, nor does it address how fluctuations in global oil and gas markets might alter the trajectory in either direction. Analysts typically caution that baseline forecasts of this kind are subject to revision as market conditions evolve over the forecast period.

The projected price increases come amid a period of continued growth in Russia-China energy cooperation, as both countries have sought to deepen trade ties across a range of sectors. Energy exports remain a central pillar of that relationship, providing Russia with a major market for gas that once primarily flowed to Europe.