EU Proposes 15-Year Probation Period for New Member States to Guard Against 'Another Orbán'

The European Commission wants to put in place a 15-year probation period for new member states, in an effort to prevent a repeat of the democratic backsliding associated with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán among future entrants to the bloc.

In an interview with the Guardian and other European newspapers, EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos outlined proposals for special safeguards intended to protect the bloc as it prepares for further expansion into eastern Europe in the coming years. The plans reflect concern within the Commission that simply admitting new countries is not sufficient to guarantee they will uphold democratic standards over the long term once membership benefits and protections are secured.

Learning from Hungary's trajectory

Orbán's government has repeatedly clashed with Brussels over issues including judicial independence, media freedom and the rule of law since Hungary joined the EU, with critics arguing the bloc lacked effective tools to respond once a member state began sliding away from democratic norms. Kos's proposed probation period appears designed to give the EU greater leverage to respond to similar concerns before new member states are fully integrated with all the rights and protections of membership.

The precise mechanisms envisioned for the probation period, including what powers the EU would have to intervene or impose consequences during that period, were not fully detailed in the interview. The proposals come as the bloc considers the accession of several eastern European candidate countries, a process that has drawn both political support and caution from different member states over its pace and conditions.