Analysis: Trump's Push for Influence in Latin America Faces a Test in Brazil's Election

A Guardian opinion column by Steve Bloomfield argues that Donald Trump's stated ambition to reassert US dominance over Latin America could gain a significant boost if Jair Bolsonaro's son wins the presidency in Brazil.

The piece notes that while Trump's foreign policy record has included numerous setbacks elsewhere in the world, his administration has pointed to a string of far-right electoral victories across Latin America as a success story.

A declared strategy

According to the column, the Trump administration's national security strategy explicitly describes a goal of "restoring American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere," outlining plans to reward governments and political movements considered aligned with U.S. principles and strategy.

The columnist argues this amounts to a direct statement of intent to influence the political life of countries in the region, rather than a more traditional, less explicit form of diplomatic engagement.

An alternative explanation

The column also presents a competing explanation for recent far-right victories in Latin America, suggesting that fears over gang-related crime, rather than direct American influence, have played a larger role in shaping these election outcomes.

The piece frames Brazil's coming presidential election, in which Bolsonaro's son is a contender, as a key test of whether Trump's declared strategy for the Western Hemisphere will translate into further political gains for aligned movements in the region.