UK State Pension Set to Rise to Around £13,000 Under Triple Lock, Wage Data Shows

The UK state pension is on track to rise by 3.9% next year, taking it to approximately £13,000, according to figures reported by The Guardian based on the latest wage growth data used to calculate the "triple lock" pension guarantee.

The triple lock ensures the state pension rises each year in line with whichever is highest: average wage growth, inflation, or 2.5%. According to the report, wage growth — the metric used this year to set the increase — slowed to 3.9%, which is expected to translate into the pension reaching around £13,000 annually from next year.

The projected increase has renewed scrutiny of the policy's cost to the public purse, with the report noting ongoing debate over whether the triple lock represents "a lifeline or simply unaffordable" commitment for the government.

A key complication highlighted in the report is that a state pension of £13,000 would exceed the UK's tax-free personal allowance, which currently stands at £12,570. The personal allowance is the amount an individual can earn before becoming liable for income tax.

However, the report notes that pensioners whose sole income is the state pension should still remain exempt from paying tax even if the pension itself exceeds the personal allowance threshold.

In the 2025 Budget, the government confirmed that the personal allowance would remain frozen at its current level until April 2031, according to the report. The Budget also included an announcement that pensioners relying solely on the basic or new state pension would not be required to pay small amounts of tax through simple assessment from the 2027/28 tax year onward, even if their pension income surpasses the personal allowance from that point.

The report states that, to date, the government has not published further details on how this exemption process would be implemented in practice.