Sweden's Far-Right Support Slips as Social Democrats Poised to Return to Power Despite Election Loss

Sweden's political landscape has shifted following Sunday's general election, with the far-right Sweden Democrats party losing support even as the Social Democrats appear poised to return to government despite recording their worst electoral result since 1908, according to an analysis by Cas Mudde, a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, published in The Guardian.

According to Mudde's account, the outcome traces back to strategic decisions made after the 2022 election. At that time, Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson chose to support the rightwing minority government led by Moderate party prime minister Ulf Kristersson, while Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson attempted to emulate what Mudde describes as the "Danish model" in a bid to regain power. Mudde writes that both approaches resulted in electoral losses but ultimately achieved political success for their respective parties.

Following Sunday's vote, the Social Democrats are expected to lead a new government, according to the analysis, despite the party losing roughly 2% of its support — its weakest showing in more than a century. Mudde attributes this apparent contradiction to Sweden's bloc politics system and gains made by the party's likely coalition partners.

The Left party, the Green party and the Center party each increased their support, by 1.5%, 1.7% and 0.4% respectively, according to the piece. Together, these parties and the Social Democrats would form a left-leaning bloc holding a majority of just three seats in the new parliament, Mudde notes.

Mudde characterizes this narrow margin as leaving Andersson in "a very vulnerable position" even as she prepares to return to power. The analysis frames the Sweden Democrats' reduced support as significant but cautions that the far-right party remains a substantial political force in the country.

The piece was published as an opinion analysis in The Guardian's Comment is Free section, reflecting the author's assessment of the electoral dynamics and their implications for Sweden's political future.