Russia Cutting Ballistic Missile Use, Saving Stock for Winter, Dutch Analyst Says

Russia has reduced its use of ballistic missiles against Ukraine in recent weeks, instead carrying out a larger share of its strikes with jet-powered drones, according to Dutch defense analyst Patrick Bolder.

Bolder said the shift appears to reflect a deliberate choice by Russian military planners to conserve ballistic missile stocks for further use once winter sets in, when such weapons have previously been employed to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure and power grid.

Jet-powered drones have become an increasingly prominent part of Russia's strike campaign, offering a lower-cost alternative to ballistic missiles while still allowing for strikes against infrastructure and populated areas. The pattern described by Bolder suggests Russia is managing its more expensive and limited ballistic missile inventory with an eye toward sustained pressure over a longer period.

Previous winters of the war have seen intensified Russian missile and drone campaigns against Ukraine's power and heating infrastructure, part of a strategy aimed at degrading civilian living conditions during the coldest months. Analysts have tracked Russian missile production and usage rates closely as an indicator of how such campaigns might unfold.

Bolder's assessment adds to ongoing analysis of how Russia is allocating its weapons stockpiles as the war continues, with the coming winter widely expected to test Ukraine's air defenses and energy resilience once again.