Prediction Markets Show Democrats With Slight Edge to Flip Senate

Prediction markets are showing a slight edge for Democrats in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, according to a report by CNBC published Wednesday.

The report said traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket, two prominent platforms where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, currently see Democrats with one of their best chances to flip the Senate since the election contracts opened.

CNBC characterized the race as still a toss-up overall, but noted that sentiment among traders on both platforms has shifted in Democrats' favor.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of political races, with prices on those contracts often interpreted as a real-time gauge of perceived probability. Such markets have drawn increasing attention from media outlets and analysts as an alternative to traditional polling in forecasting election outcomes.

The report did not detail specific contract prices or percentage odds for either party. CNBC did not specify the exact composition of Senate seats up for election or provide further breakdowns of the trading data in the excerpt reviewed.

Control of the Senate remains a key focus of political attention, as the chamber plays a central role in confirming federal appointments and shaping legislation. The shift in prediction-market sentiment comes as both parties continue to campaign ahead of the election.

CNBC's report is based on data from the two prediction-market platforms; further details on individual state races or specific odds were not included in the excerpt available at publication.