Poll: Tactical Voting Could Push Reform UK Into Fourth Place

Widespread tactical voting at the next UK general election could push Reform UK into fourth place and bring Labour within touching distance of a parliamentary majority, according to a major new poll reported by The Guardian.

The survey's findings suggest that Andy Burnham is beginning to draw a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour. Pollsters say this shift appears to be motivated primarily by a desire among progressive voters to prevent Nigel Farage's Reform UK from gaining power.

The results point to the potential impact of tactical voting — where voters back the candidate best placed to defeat a party they oppose, rather than their first-preference party — in reshaping the outcome of a tightly contested race between Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens and Reform UK.

The poll is linked to a wider analysis examining five distinct "progressive majority" voter groups, which found that while these voters are broadly aligned on concerns such as living costs and the NHS, they differ over issues including immigration and the pace of policy change.

Together, the findings suggest that the degree to which progressive-leaning voters coordinate their support at the ballot box could prove decisive in determining whether Reform UK finishes third or fourth in the popular vote, and whether Labour can secure a majority government.