JP Morgan Says It Cannot Reliably Forecast Oil Prices Amid US-Iran Tensions

JP Morgan has said it is struggling to forecast oil prices because of the unpredictable nature of the confrontation between the United States and Iran, according to a note reported by the BBC.

The bank told clients "we simply don't know" how the situation would evolve, citing the difficulty of anticipating decisions made amid the conflict.

According to the BBC, JP Morgan said it had "assumed" there would be certain economic red lines that the United States would be unwilling to cross, giving the example of oil prices reaching $100 a barrel.

The bank's comments reflect broader uncertainty among analysts about how the standoff between Washington and Tehran could affect global energy markets, given Iran's role as a major oil producer and its proximity to key shipping routes in the Gulf region.

Oil prices are closely watched by investors and policymakers because sharp increases can raise inflation and slow economic growth worldwide.

The BBC report did not detail further specifics of JP Morgan's price projections beyond the acknowledgement of the forecasting challenge.