Ethiopia's new rebel alliance faces an old problem: internal division

A newly formed alliance of rebel groups in Ethiopia, brought together by their shared opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is facing internal strains that echo challenges seen in similar coalitions in the past.

The alliance unites groups that were previously enemies, a coalition-building strategy common among opposition movements in Ethiopia's fractured political and ethnic landscape, where numerous armed factions have at various points fought both the central government and each other.

Old rivalries resurface

Despite their common cause against Abiy's government, the groups within the alliance reportedly disagree over territory, the distribution of power, and command structure, disputes that have historically undermined similar rebel coalitions in Ethiopia and the wider region.

Ethiopia has experienced significant internal conflict in recent years, including the war in the Tigray region, alongside tensions and violence in Amhara and Oromia. These conflicts have involved shifting alliances among ethnic and regional armed groups, some of which have at times cooperated and at other times fought one another.

The durability of the new alliance is likely to depend on whether its constituent groups can resolve their disagreements over how territory would be governed and how military and political power would be shared should their campaign against the government succeed.

Analysts of the region have frequently noted that opposition coalitions built primarily around a shared adversary, rather than a unified vision for governance, often struggle to hold together once that immediate pressure shifts or fades.